Dr. Anthony Soares, Deputy Director of the Centre for Cross Border Studies in Armagh, sees both threats and potential opportunities for the Agri-food sector on the island of Ireland in a post-BREXIT world.
So much has yet to be decided on how BREXIT will play out. Will the UK leave the single market, or if it remains, under what conditions?
As Dr. Anthony Soares of the Centre for Cross Border Studies explains:
“BREXIT won’t happen for several years.”
In the meantime, Anthony and his team are researching and attempting to identify the main potential issues.
The most recent research in the Agri- food sector involved mapping activity in four border counties – Armagh, Down, Louth and Monaghan – among food producers, retailers, restaurants, customers and employees. It took place before the BREXIT referendum.
“The biggest concern at the moment post-BREXIT for the food sector is that there may be divergence in food supply and food safety standards between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland," he says. "This is particularly the case if the UK doesn't stay in the single market and especially so if it decides to do trade deals with other markets and as part of that accepts lower standards. Or say the UK does a deal with a Latin American country such as Brazil, which is a huge beef producer. That could leave NI open to cheap imports."
Even if the UK remains in the Single Market, because it is no longer a member of the European Union, it won't have a seat at the table in negotiating agreed standards, he points out. The same is true for the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP). "The UK will have no say in that going forward."
While the ROI will continue to have in uence, NI will be dependent on UK policy. It is important that the interests of the Agri- food industry in NI are represented.
Agriculture in NI has more in common with the ROI than with the sector in England, where farms are larger and there is more intensive production. The dairy and beef industry is more signi cant on the island of Ireland than it is in GB.
Cross border movement is also a potential issue. According to Anthony, food producers, particularly in the big towns around the mid- Ulster area, state that the increase of EU migrants in the early 2000s was crucial in allowing their businesses to ourish. “Without that the towns might have died,” he says.
Free movement of goods and people north to south on the island of Ireland is another important factor for the Agri-food sector. At the moment, the ROI accounts for 55-56% of all NI’s exports to the EU. People in the industry also may work on one side of the border and live on the other.
If the UK doesn’t stay within the single market, there will have to be controls. It might not be necessary to have a ‘hard’ border but there will have to be checks on any goods coming into the ROI and NI. “Whatever system is put in place, it will carry an additional nancial and administrative burden for exporters in Northern Ireland.”
So, what are the potential upsides of BREXIT for Agri-food on the island of Ireland?
Again, Anthony points out, much has yet to be decided but there is an increasing understanding on the island of Ireland that some creative thinking is required.
Productivity remains a challenge for the Agri-food sector in both NI and ROI, “There is huge opportunity for working together on the challenges on an all island basis, especially when compared with the sector in Great Britain. Working together and using all our institutions could enable the sector to innovate, increase productivity and offset the costs of price volatility and climate change,” he says.
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